QUESTION: It is reported that the Global temperature is set to reach new records in the next five years. What will be its impacts? What is the role of humanity in this scenario? – JOY PALATHARA

ANSWER: Saji Mathew Kanayankal CST

In a press release on 17 May 2023, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, and 2023-2027 will be the warmest five-year period ever recorded, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event. The statement continues that “there is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.” Scientists have set the 1.5°C level as a point of reference of global warming for many years and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) warned about the various dangerous impacts of global warming beyond 1.5°C. The figure is not a direct measure of the world’s temperature but an indicator of how much or how little the Earth has warmed or cooled compared to the long-term global average. However, this report does not say that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C but it clearly states that “we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporarily basis with increasing frequency.” But, breaking the limit even for just one year is a worrying sign that warming is accelerating and not slowing down.
One of the important reasons for this outburst of warming is the possible presence of El Niño in the coming months. The rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice as fast; 0.18°C per decade. As per the press release of WMO on 12 January 2023, the hottest eight years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2022, with 2016 being the warmest. The global temperature was controlled or rather cooled due to the influence of La Niña, the phenomenon that refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It usually has the opposite impact on the weather and climate of El Niño. La Niña helps the climate to be drier and colder winters in the north and wetted winters in the south.
La Niña ended in March 2023 and El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. According to the report, the El Niño “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” which will have unpredicted repercussions for human health, food security, water management and the environment. “Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the WMO report. In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather.

Impacts of Global Warming
Global warming is not a new phenomenon. Since the 1960s land and sea mean near-surface temperatures have been increasing and since the 1980s, each decade has been warmer than the previous one. This is expected to continue in the coming decades as well. The roughly 1°C increase in global average surface temperature that has occurred since the pre-industrial era (1880-1900) might seem small, but it means a significant increase in accumulated heat. The chances of temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above the 1850-1990 average have risen steadily since 2015, a year when the scientists were considered close to zero. For decades they believed that if the world warmed by around 2°C that would be the threshold of dangerous impacts – but in 2018 they significantly revised this estimate, showing that going past 1.5°C would be calamitous for the world. The last IPCC report (March 2023) has given a clear indication of the human role in altering the climate and natural systems in unprecedented ways. It warns that “without policy and behavioural changes, the average global temperature is likely to rise above the benchmark of 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, likely within the next decade.” However, it adds that if the world dramatically reduces emissions, future scenarios can be better.
The effects of global warming will be far-reaching and often devastating. Climate models forecast that global warming will cause climate patterns worldwide to experience significant changes. Despite increasing numbers of extreme weather events like floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms, there are still gaps in systems warning people of these dangers – especially in developing countries. Even a small increase in global warming brings new risks for the entire Earth community. It can exacerbate various dangers from heat waves, wildfires, drought, heavy rain, mountain snow, flooding and many other similar calamities. The different extremes like severe drought and unexpected floods, landslides, soil erosion etc., are the immediate impacts of these changes.
One of the most immediate and obvious consequences of global warming is the increase in temperatures around the world. The average global temperature has increased by about 0.8°C over the past 100 years. Ice is melting in both polar ice caps and mountain glaciers. It is reported that more than 25% of Himalayan glaciers have been lost over the past century due to climate change and their loss will be more in the future. These changes will likely include major shifts in wind patterns, annual precipitation and seasonal temperature variations. We experience more intense hurricanes and frequent lightnings worldwide, more specifically in the American continents. Though monsoons in India and other parts of Asia will be reduced, there can be unexpected heavy rains and floods with major economic losses and human casualties.

Responses and Responsibilities
As the climate crisis is causing significant temperature changes around the world and the risk is aggravating, mitigation measures would not be delayed. We all are aware of the responsibilities of human beings for the present crisis and therefore our responses are very significant for a radical change. Since the real culprits of the ecological crisis are protected by the concerned governments, the adaptive methods are not effective so far. Most of the media is also silent about the impact of luxurious carbon emissions and the big cities have become massive hot boxes. Today, human activities like burning fossil fuels and clearing forests add about 11 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere each year. This huge amount of carbon cannot be removed by natural processes and thus atmospheric carbon dioxide increases each year. The United Nations speaks about the responsibility of the urban population and their lifestyle in this present global crisis. As per its data, more than half of the world’s population lives in cities and this figure is likely to rise to more than two-thirds by 2030. Cities consume a large share of the world’s energy supply and are responsible for about 70% of the world’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, which absorb heat and cause global warming. Eleni Myrivilli, Athens Sustainability Advisor and an expert on urban warming says; “The first – of the hazards – is cars. They are a big problem and really inconsiderate. Moreover. spending on air conditioning is really bad and stupid. The use of air conditioning is also a very big problem.” But we ignore these realities and the responsibility of the urban population on global warming and climate change is not yet highlighted. On the other hand, coming to the impact, the people who are responsible for the greater carbon emissions are less affected by it. The primary victims of the increased heat in cities will be the elderly, children and people living in poverty.
It is a sad reality that the different nations have failed to execute the Paris Agreement (2015), which was the centre point of ongoing global negotiations on climate change. It was a sincere attempt to limit the global temperature, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC has given ample warnings about the risks and hazards once it crosses the red signal of 1.5 °C. The Paris Agreement made a framework for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to the impacts of climate change, and provide support to developing countries in their efforts to address climate change. Under the Paris Agreement, each country is required to submit and update their NDCs every 5 years, outlining their plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. However, nations were delayed to make monumental changes to achieve this goal and there was a thought that the world will probably exceed that threshold around the early 2030s. In its report on Global Climate 2022, WMO accepted the ineffectiveness of Paris Agreement and its failure in fulfilling the proposed agenda. After the signing of the Agreement, the last eight years (2015-2022) have consecutively been the warmest years on record globally. The Paris Agreement has not been able to equitably phase out fossil fuels predominantly responsible for the climate crisis. Neither the NDCs nor the disaster risk reduction and climate risk management plans are in place to combat climate-induced extreme weather phenomena.
It has been clear for a while that the developed world must reject fossil fuels and stop any new expansion of oil, gas and coal, and stop shifting the onus of climate action on developing countries. The urgency of this shift was underlined by the report predicting the “worst impact” on India and South Asia. The World Economic Forum in Davos pointed to several possible solutions to help keep cities cool. Examples range from improving sanitation by recycling waste to the impact of planting small urban forests. United Nations Secretary-general Antonio Guterres also made it clear that wealthier countries must mobilise resources to support emerging economies, in line with the principle of common good but differentiated responsibilities. Getting the developed world to meet its climate responsibilities has been a challenge; but going forward, they must act, or the rest of the world will pay a heavy price for their defiant and irresponsible attitude. To prevent the global disaster, we should learn how to do green and blue infrastructure in cities or mixed infrastructure, grey and green together. Moreover, a change in our lifestyle, a renovation in the habit of our cooking and eating and the production of waste, a radical transformation in the way we live and learn, and a limitation in the manner we shop and travel may help to reduce carbon emission and thus to limit the impacts of the climate change.