If trends of the past 30 years continue for the next 50, Christianity will lose its majority status in the United States by 2070, according to a new demographic study by the Pew Research Centre.
If those trends, first identified in 1990, accelerate over the next half-century, Christianity will have fewer adherents than Americans who are not affiliated with any church, according to the study, “Modelling the Future of Religion in America,” released Sept. 13.
Even with the demographic modelling used by Pew, the numbers vary widely. Christians, put by Pew currently at 64% of the U.S. population, could slide to 54% — or plunge to 35% — by 2070.
By the same token, the religiously un-affiliated — called “nones” in some circles — currently at 29%, could rise to 34% of the population in the next half-century, or soar to 52%.
Pew used four different scenarios in making its projections. One was “no switching,” meaning that Americans would not switch from religious affiliation to disaffiliation, or vice versa. It counterpart was “steady switching,” in which 31% of Christians become unaffiliated, while 21% of the unaffiliated become Christian.
The other two models are “rising disaffiliation.” One model put limits on the share of Christians who leave the faith at 50%. The other model set no limits on disaffiliation.
Only the no-switching model, which Pew called “counterfactual,” allowed Christianity to retain its U.S. majority. The steady-switching scenario gave Christians a 46%-41% plurality. Under the rising-disaffiliation models, Christianity was relegated to minority status, with less than 40% of all Americans.
Pew did four alternative scenarios, in which every mother transmitted their faith to each of her children; if religious groups had equal birthrates; if immigration stopped after 2030; and if older Christians stopped switching from belief to unaffiliated status. Christianity would lose its majority status but retain plurality status through 2070 under all four scenarios.
“It is possible that events outside the study’s model — such as war, economic de-pression, climate crisis, changing immigration patterns or religious innovations — could reverse current religious switching trends, leading to a revival of Christianity in the United States,” the report said.