• QUESTION : Donald Trump will take office as President of the United States of America for the second time on January 20. What will be its impact on global politics?
  – Jacqueline Thomas, Bangalore

ANSWER: Saji Mathew Kanayankal CST

Donald Trump 78, the oldest person ever elected to the presidency in the United States, is back to power. As many opines, it is the ‘historic and improbable’ coming back, a very rare event in the history of the United States. The words of Trump themselves mark it vividly: “We’ve achieved the most incredible political thing. America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” Unlike his election in 2016, he is taking the position of the most powerful political office with a clear majority in both houses of Congress; a good margin in popular votes and the electoral college at this time. Ture, he is a hero for many, one who champions the identity of America, who vows to ‘Make America Great Again’, and a strong man with unequal audacity and courage. When most of these achievements are something heroic, a good number of people in the US as well as outside, expressed their apprehension and anxiety at this victory.

For many, a second term for Trump seems to be an aberration, a blow to democracy and a harm to the international moral order. David Smith in his column in ‘The Guardian’ writes that the result of the American election is a catastrophe for the world. The candidature of Trump for the second term itself was bizarrerie for many non-Americans. A person who is notoriously infamous for his overt racism, misogyny, xenophobia, dishonesty, rambling narcissism and naked self-interest, with extreme and crude rhetoric, who has been impeached twice, a convicted felon in the riot in 2020, one who has been liable for accusation for sexual abuses and surviving repeated scandals and multiple indictments, one who was with a very poor track record as the president of the country, has won the majority for contesting in the much campus US election itself was something strange and odd! We have already witnessed his venality and vulgarity, his crass insults and crude populism, and his dehumanisation of immigrants that echo Adolf Hitler. This contemptuous mood is well expressed after the election result. As Carla Bleiker points out, while some world leaders like India’s Narendra Modi and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu have excitedly congratulated Trump, the mood among many people in Western Europe was one of shock and incomprehension. Smith describes it as ‘a leap into the political unknown’. In a video published on social media platform X, a number of Germans expressed their sadness, scaredness and disappointment at this election. In the words of Smith, “America knew that he was a convicted criminal, serial liar and racist demagogue, who four years ago attempted to overthrow the government. It voted for him anyway.”

• A Reaction to the Poor Governance

Among the various facts that led to the second victory of Trump, many political analysts place inflation and immigration in the first place. During the Biden-Harris administration, inflation was at a high rate, but they deplorably failed to control it. Everything – from food to gas and housing –became expensive and this was the most pressing, salient and visible problem in the daily life of most Americans. Roz Werkheiser, a dinner manager from eastern Pennsylvania, shared that the inflation has been as contagious as the pandemic that set it off and the rising cost of food has directly impacted her customers. She says; “the past four years were terrible. Interest rates on credit cards went up, electric bill went up, gas went up. TV/Cable went up. I know all my bills went up.” This was the experience of most ordinary people in the US. While inflation waned, prices remained higher than when Trump was in office. In the pre-poll survey of NBC, 45% of voters opined that they were worse off financially than they were four years ago. Trump and his team focused on inflation and the economy throughout their campaign which resonated with the voters and ultimately people opted to ‘vote for their pocketbook.’

Trump brought populism from the margins to the centre, and he is an inspiration for right-wing European populists like Hugo Chávez (Venezuela), Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey), and Victor Orbán (Hungary). They undermine civil society’s independence and the democratic public sphere. Many other political leaders are also moving on the same track. While hijacking the press and media, they attack the opposition with fabricated stories and propaganda. For them, the opposition is not political rivalry, but rather an enemy to be annihilated by all means. By abusing the legal system, they revenge against their political enemies and deploy the military against their own civilians

While Harris and the Democrats were focusing on reproductive rights and democratic backsliding, the Republicans focused on more basic issues that affect people and their daily lives. Their attempt to relate inflation with immigration, especially by arguing that the irregular immigration across the southern US border was the root cause of inflation finally worked out well. Biden had made Harris responsible for tackling the reasons behind immigration and border security, and Trump used this to blame her for a ‘host’ of problems. By relentlessly concentrating on these basic issues throughout their vehement campaign, team Trump could easily divert the attention of the people from the chaos and assault on American democracy of his first term and the resentment of disenchanted voters forced them to forget or ignore the unhappy events of the past. Haris’ association with an unpopular Biden regime, especially on certain aspects of economic and Middle Eastern policy, demotivated many, especially the independent people and supporters of the Democrats. Trump vowed at nearly every campaign event that he would carry out mass deportations if he is re-elected. This anger and unhappiness of the voters were very clear in the pre-poll surveys. A good number of people were ‘double-haters’, voters who said that they were unfavourable to both candidates which led to a heavy decline in the percentage of total voting. This drop in voter turnout disproportionately affected Democrats. Moreover, among the ‘double-haters’ 55% supported Trump more than Harris.

A Strong Man for a Strong Nation

In the context of inflation, immigration and people’s disenchantment, the saga ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) worked out very well. The picture of Donald Trump as a strong man influenced people and the MAGA movement systematically and meticulously exploited the opportunity. People naturally look for strong leadership to overcome difficulties in disparate situations. Two events during the campaign instigated this as well. The disastrous debate performance of Biden on July 27 and the picture of Trump standing with blood streaked across his face as he raised his fist and shouting “Fight!”. These were incredible moments of this election. The poor poor performance of Biden got more attention than many untruths and exaggerations of Trump. In one of his final rallies, at the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York, Trump delivered a ramped-up version of his typical stump speech, promising “the strongest economy, the most secure borders and safest cities.” Most importantly, even his opponents would accept his authenticity and endurance. Even though it seems outrageous, he is consistent in his statements. While Harris was vague on many core issues, Trump was strong and consistent and in a Pew survey, 69 percent of voters opined that Trump “stands up for what he believes in”. Instead of running away from his scandals, Trump embraced his legal problems and used them to reinforce one of his core messages: that the system is rigged, and against conservatives in particular. As it is observed, “in a world where trust in politicians and governments is extremely low, an ‘authentic’ candidate can be quite appealing.”

Are We Moving towards a More Divisive World?

As Trump takes office on 20 January 2025 the entire world has to address some challenges, especially in protecting democratic values and modern ideologies. No doubt that the world is moving towards more uncertainties. Not only in the US, but in many parts of the world right-wing extremists are in power and the incumbent candidates are losing in elections. Political Islamism, terrorist attacks, economic recession and growing insecurity accelerate the growth of extremism and polarisation. The influence of Trumpism has increased in the global political scenario unprecedentedly. As Carlos de la Torre writes, “his outlandish personality and eccentricities are part of his continued popularity.” Though Trumpism is not a doctrine nor an ideology, its key elements can be seen in the life and administration of many political leaders around the world. With its roots in America, it focuses on four principles such as; “galvanizing a ‘people’ essentialized in its opposition to the elites; hostility to the centralization of power and to (liberal) intellectual elites; nationalist, semi-isolationist ideas; and, finally, authoritarian practices that reject all opposition,” says Olivier Richomme.

More than reflecting the views of a single man, Trumpism should be understood as a movement in response to the popular perception of protracted national decline. Through a combination of nationalism, populism, and industrialism, it endeavours to rebalance American prosperity to the benefit of working-class interests long disparaged by legal, financial, and creative elites. In achieving this goal, Trumpism prioritizes tangible results and dismisses democratic values and moral order. As political scientists Jean-Marie Ruiz and Isabelle Vagnoux explain, it is “an aggregate of positions and ideas latent in US history that resurface from time to time.” At present the Republican party, which was once known for its old-fashioned patrician values, seems entirely committed to Trump and his rhetoric which marks a dramatic departure from the principles that had dominated it for many decades.

The political upheaval of Trump did not happen at random. By building a social and political movement that gave him coercive power over the Republican Party, Trump systematically demolished many of the nation’s long-standing norms, ushering in a cohort of lackeys who will enable his most autocratic impulses. Autocracy is not a project of an overnight. It is a gradual process. In 2020 people of the US gave a clear mandate to Joe Biden, but he miserably failed to utilise the opportunity. The triumph of Trump is a lesson to the Indian politicians, especially to the opposition leaders, who fail to work together for national integrity forgetting their personal egos and interests. Their disunity and short-sightedness will lead to total majoritarianism and autocracy. It is the duty of every responsible citizen to be vigilant in the face of modern tyranny and to work for an inclusive, tolerant, and pluralist society putting aside our self-interests, egoistic views and individual impulses.

Trump brought populism from the margins to the centre, and he is an inspiration for right-wing European populists like Hugo Chávez (Venezuela), Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey), and Victor Orbán (Hungary). They undermine civil society’s independence and the democratic public sphere. Many other political leaders are also moving on the same track. While hijacking the press and media, they attack the opposition with fabricated stories and propaganda. For them, the opposition is not political rivalry, but rather an enemy to be annihilated by all means. By abusing the legal system, they revenge against their political enemies and deploy the military against their own civilians. As a result, the differences between political rivalries become stark, polarisation is widening worldwide, and majoritarianism becomes the fundamental principle to gain success in elections. Xenophobia plays a key role at the heart of their political identity. The citizens feel more antagonism towards the other and the gap and enmity between different groups of people widens after each election.

Many values of modern democracy slowly fade away and the populists exploit the religious fabric as well as the cultural heritage of each country. Some of them have even changed their countries’ constitutions just for their personal interest and some others would do so if they get a clear mandate. Most of the democratic institutions are hijacked by their personal agenda. Truthfulness, righteousness and justice wither away from the public sphere and the rule of the autocrat becomes the law of the nation. As a result, the liberal democracy it attacked, many of the modern values of democracy and political wisdom have been ignored and authoritarianism slowly displaces democracy. It will surely redefine the future of the world.

Why does it happen? America has plenty of opportunities to block or stop Trump. The political upheaval of Trump did not happen at random. By building a social and political movement that gave him coercive power over the Republican Party, Trump systematically demolished many of the nation’s long-standing norms, ushering in a cohort of lackeys who will enable his most autocratic impulses. Autocracy is not a project of an overnight. It is a gradual process. In 2020 people of the US gave a clear mandate to Joe Biden, but he miserably failed to utilise the opportunity. The triumph of Trump is a lesson to the Indian politicians, especially to the opposition leaders, who fail to work together for national integrity forgetting their personal egos and interests. Their disunity and short-sightedness will lead to total majoritarianism and autocracy. It is the duty of every responsible citizen to be vigilant in the face of modern tyranny and to work for an inclusive, tolerant, and pluralist society putting aside our self-interests, egoistic views and individual impulses.