QUESTION: It is reported that India has become the most populous country and the population is increasing at a regular rate. Is this news glad or gloomy? What are the consequences of population growth? – Joseph C.

ANSWER: Saji Mathew Kanayankal CST

As per the latest report of the United Nations, India has overtaken China in population and the present population of India is 142.86 crore (1,428.6 million) which contains 2.4% of the world’s total population against China’s 142.57 crore. This is the first time that India has topped the UN list of most populous countries since it started collecting population data in 1950. The most important feature of India’s population is its number of youngsters. UNFPA Report (2023) states that nearly 25% of India’s population is under the age of 14, 68 % of the population is between 15 to 64 age group, and 7 % is above the age of 65. By 2050 the total number of Indians will cross 166 crores.
There are two important reasons for the population growth in India. First is a climatic reason. The northern plains of India are fertile and the climate of this geographical area is conducive for the best production of wheat, rice and other food grains compare to many other parts of the world. This fertility helped India to have a high population historically. Second reason is political or sociological. Though the country had taken some measures to control its population, it has never compelled people as China did with the ‘one child’ policy. Since two-third of Indians are under 35 years, a good time to bear children, the growth of the population will continue for some more time. The fertility rate in India is also rather better; in the northern states it is around 2.50 and in the southern states it is 2.1. However, fertility is dropping all over the country, in among all religious, linguistic, and ethnic groups, contrary to beliefs that some groups have significantly higher birth rates than other groups.
IMPACTS OF POPULATION GROWTH
When boasting about the ‘biggest number’ we cannot ignore the impacts of the growth of the population. The increasing rate of population is related to the growing poverty and there are strong arguments that relate population growth with poverty. These arguments are based on the theory of Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), who argued that the population which grows at a geometric rate may not be able to compete with the production capacity which grows at an arithmetic rate. Therefore, the supply of food will not be sufficient to meet the need of the growing population. This may lead to food shortage, famine and other calamities and a larger population will face more scarce resources within a short span. His followers like Paul Ehlrich, Dennis Meadows and Garrett Hardin have the opinion that an increase in population would continually increase the use of natural resources and if it remained unchecked, the globe would not be able to provide for the generations to come. In addition to the earlier mentioned famines and calamities, population growth would lead to global warming, acid rain and many other environmental issues.
An increase in population needs more use of resources and emission is its natural outcome. When there is a greater number of people in a country, a large number of natural resources have to be extracted for the need of the people. The resources of the land are limited and as the population grows there will be a shortage of it hence its distribution becomes a difficult task. The conclusion is very simple; the areas with lower population density and abundant natural resources are relatively wealthy whereas the areas with high population and abundant natural resources are relatively poor. For example, in an underpopulated country, the shareholding of the farmers on the land will be higher and thus the income also will be relatively high. This affects the entire life pattern. Similarly, in an overpopulated country, the farm, production as well as the source of income, will be less. This also matters in the case of education, medical care, life security etc. Job opportunities in an overpopulated country will be less whereas an underpopulated country is always in need of new labourers.

“Population growth could be a big disaster or
could be a good opportunity.
It depends on the way how we manage it.”

There can be new challenges arise for the political, administrative and economic departments due to the huge number of people. In countries like India where vote-bank politics play a key role, the political leadership are compelled to make policies to please the majority, and schemes, plans and policies may be specifically introduced to favour them. If the population is at a lower level, the expenditure of the Government will reduce considerably and the government can concentrate more on economic development. Also, poor people will have a greater share of the funds and civic amenities.
Many of these arguments are confronted by some prominent economists. In ‘The Theory of Economic Development’, Joseph Alois Schumpeter (1883-1950) argues that innovation improves the quality of the economic process by raising productivity. Ester Boserup (1910-1999) challenged Malthus by arguing that an increase in population would lead to greater food demand which further leads to agricultural development that may facilitate innovations and an increase in food supply (‘The Conditions of Agricultural Growth’). Similarly, Julian Simon (1932-1998) also challenged the Malthusian theory and claimed that population growth may have a positive impact on economic growth. For him, human imagination combined with educated skills, talents and capacities may flourish under economic freedom, hence human population is a resource. For the overall prosperity of the economy, we need human knowledge. When there is a larger population, there will be more people, which means more minds, more ideas, and more innovations. This would further lead to agricultural development and an increase in food production, contrary to the theory proposed by Malthus. The growing population can be utilised as a good resource to solve environmental problems as well. Though population growth seems to be a problem in the short term, it has long-term benefits.
AN ASSET TO BE EXPLORED
The population is one of the essential pillars of a sovereign state. The notion of a particular state is formed based on its people and the administration of a state, its policies, the operative functions and the other major decisions are based on the population of the country. The number of citizens in a country, first of all, is the working force. With over two-thirds of its people of working age, India could both produce and consume more goods and services, drive innovation and keep pace with the constant technological changes. But how does the country use this working force? Is our country and system capable to provide jobs for so many young people? Does the socio-political situation of the country help entrepreneurs to engage freely in jobs and other initiatives? When there are many politically motivated influences and sways many people do not find the country as an apt place to meet their needs. The number of the migration of youngsters from India to other countries has drastically increased during the last few years. According to the UN World Migration Report (WMR) 2022, in 2020 18 million people from the country are living outside and this number is rapidly increasing.
Despite its problems like political divisions and religious extremism, the disparity between the rich and the poor, socio-cultural discrepancy, persisting poverty and unemployment, and the uneven reach of opportunities and education, India is bursting forth with dynamism, diversity, and change. In the present global scenario, India is an emerging economic and geopolitical power. Keeping friendship with all nations, including Russia and USA, the political stance of India is strategic, which became evident during the Ukraine conflict. Even Pakistan has appreciated its independent policy. Now India can follow its own interests, without provoking other major powers. Moreover, India is on the track to become the third largest economy in the world by the end of this decade and the number of populations will be a great advantage in this move. As the number of people increases the consumption rate of the country also increases that leads to the overall economic growth. Along with it, India is also expanding its infrastructure, with the world’s largest rural broadband project, constructing new roads and highways, making new achievements in the railway including the indigenously-built semi-high speed Vande Bharat trains, Sagarmala programmes and so on. Globally, India is number fifth for overall installed renewable energy capacity, fourth for wind power and fifth for solar power. All the more Indian culture is breaking into more global spaces.
Among the glimpses of development, poverty and inequality are the great challenges in India. In the world hunger rate, India places 107 among the 121 nations. The UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative Report states that 16% of Indian people are in poverty and among them 4.2% are extremely poor. As per the Oxfam Report 2023, the top 10% of the Indian population holds 77% of the national wealth and 73% of the wealth generated in 2017 went to the richest 1%, while 670 million Indians who comprise the poorest half of the population saw only a 1% increase in their wealth. Many Indians are in poverty not because of the shortage of resources but because of its proper distribution. Most of the policies of the present Indian government is also in favour of the rich or multinational companies. In such a situation the increasing number of populations may not give the expected positive result.
The disparity between the rich and the poor is also to be analysed in the context of present ecological crisis. A small minority of wealthy people produce the majority of global greenhouse gas emissions and their consumption habits have a much greater impact than overall population numbers. UNFPA states that half of all emissions come from the richest 10% of the world’s population and therefore conflating a rise in emissions with population growth is mistaken. The present ‘devotion to luxury’ and the ‘moral degradation’ make it very hard to distinguish between luxury and need. Many individual corporations produce a ‘greater amount’ of greenhouse gas than many nation-states. The growth of the cavalries of extravagance of the few and their ‘luxury emissions’ not only leads to the exploitation and degeneration of the poor and unskilled, but also increase pollution and other kinds of moral harm. The luxurious emission of carbon is to be separated from the normal emission of carbon by the people for their sustenance and livelihood.
Population growth could be a big disaster or could be a good opportunity. It depends on the way how we manage it. The government has the duty to provide food, education and a healthy living atmosphere to all its citizens. 60% of India’s population is working in the agricultural field and the production rice and wheat is in a good ratio now. India has to improve its education and healthcare systems to be benefited to all its citizens. The unemployment ratio in India is 7.45 % as per the data in February 2023 which shows a slight improvement from the previous year (it was 8.3% in December 2022). Even though 65% of Indians are able to work, only 45% had got a job. The number of women in the working force is also is less. Every year more than one crore youth are in search of new jobs. Each year thousands of young people are going out of the country in search of job or better living facilities. We should learn to use human resources in the best way by taking the necessary steps to face the different challenges and the distribution of wealth and natural resources in an equitable way. Unless there is proper distribution and respect for each individual, the overall wellbeing of the country will be a mirage.