QUESTION: The continual flood in Kerala prompts me to think about global warming and climate change. Some would say that life becomes impossible on the earth within a few decades. Do we have any studies related to it? Do you think that human beings have a serious role to play at this juncture?  – Thomas Shaji

ANSWER: As I started to pen down the answer for your query, the shocking news came from Kerala that almost 18 persons are killed and around 80 people are missing due to a landslide at Pettimudi, near Munnar in Idukki district, Kerala. Later on, the number of deceased is increased to 52 and 19 are missing and the search for them is continuing. In the later discussions on the issue, it is pointed out that Pettimudi was not a landslide zone nor had any symptoms or any such previous experiences from this region. It is almost certain that this area was rather safe and people were living there for more than a century. Kerala, especially the Munnar area has witnessed very heavy rain on the first week of August and the Automated Weather Station (AWS) of forest department recorded 995mm of rain in Rajamali from 1st to 6th August. As per the report, the rains were so heavy that the AWS became dysfunctional. On 6th August the rainfall was 61.64 cm, the highest in forty years, which is heavier than the rain that Kerala had in 2018. It is to be counted in the list of ‘extremely heavy rainfall’ which was never experienced before. Along with heavy rain, the deforestation and the different earthwork and constructions might have caused the unexpected landslide. So far, no clear scientific studies or analysis on this particular phenomenon had come out.
Recent years, various parts of India witness unexpected heavy rain during the monsoon that results in flood, landslides and other similar calamities. Unlike the past, nowadays it repeats every year, almost making life impossible in many regions. Take the example of Kerala, the smallest state in the southern part of the country. The experience of heavy rain and flood is of the third consecutive year in 2020 which was quite unlike for this region. The inhabitants of the state, especially the farmers mostly concentrated in the hilly regions and the fishermen in the coastal areas are very much worried about their future. As the flood, landslide and other related incidents repeat every year, their life and sustenance become a puzzle. Many lost their dear and near ones, some others lost their land, shelter and jobs and the majority of them do not find a way to go ahead.

Climate Change and Its Effects

Though the international experts and scientist give frequent warnings and there were many awareness programmes on climate change, most of us are not taken them seriously, including our political leaders and government officials. One of the important reasons for the sudden heavy rainfall is the global warming that leads to a sudden tropical depression. It is reported that the average global temperatures in 2019 were 1.8 degree, which was the second warmest year on record and the six warmest years on record since 1880 were the last six years, 2014 to 2019. In May 2020 the concentration of Carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere is recorded as the highest in human history. The global CO2 concentration since 2000 is about 20 ppm per decade, which is up to 10 times faster than any sustained rise in CO2 during the past 800,000 years. As per the study report in the journal ‘Theoretical and Applied Climatology,’ the Western Ghats has experienced warming of about 0.8 degree Celsius in the past hundred years on account of climate change. In the case of India, the ecologically rich Western Ghats play a very vital role in deciding the climatological characteristics of the country. Most of the elements that accelerate global warming are anthropogenic. The IIT Gandhinagar scientists’ study says that large parts of India have experienced significant warning in the last six decades due to human activities. The rise of temperature not only brings drought in many parts of the country but also it affects the rainfall, which is very much significant for the farmers in the county, for the vast majority of them depends on monsoon for their livelihood. According to IIT, in the last four decades, there is a pronounced increase in the frequency of hot days in India. Even though we experience very heavy rainfall in a short period, the summer monsoon precipitation over India has declined by around six percent from 1951 to 2015. In this regard, ‘An IPCC Special Report on the Impact of Global Warming…’ published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2019 gives us more insights. It not only provides a detailed study on the matter but also invites us to be proactive in taking certain mitigation steps to reduce the global warming and thus to bring certain radical changes at the face of contemporary crisis.

The IPCC Special Report on the Impact of Global Warming

As per the special report of the IPCC 2019, human-induced warming reached approximately 1° Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2° Celsius per decade. Accordingly, warming from preindustrial levels to the decade 2006–2015 is assessed to be 0.87° Celsius. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5° Celsius between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate and it may reach 2° Celsius by 2100. Due to the opposing effects of different climate processes and drivers, if all anthropogenic emissions were reduced to zero immediately, any further warming beyond the 1° Celsius already experienced would likely be less than 0.5° Celsius over the next two to three decades.
Most people think of global warming and climate change as same. But these are two different realities, though both are mutually interconnected. The IPCC report defines global warming as “an increase in combined surface air and sea surface temperatures averaged over the globe and over a 30-year period.” Human activity has warmed the world by about 1° Celsius since pre-industrial times, and the impacts of this warming have already been felt in many parts of the world. However, temperatures are not changing at the same speed everywhere and warming greater than the global annual average is being experienced in many land regions and seasons at various levels. As per the report, warming from anthropogenic emissions from the pre-industrial period to the present will persist for centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the climate system, such as sea-level rise, with associated impacts. The term climate change encompasses the complex shifts that affect the planets whether and climate system including global warming, extreme weather events, rising sea levels, unexpected heavy rainfalls and its various impacts that affect the human population, animals and plants in the worldwide.

The Major Impacts of Climate Change

Apart from a deep analysis of the issue of climate change, the report also gives a comprehensive description of its impacts. The climate change influences the physical, biological and human systems including the increases of temperatures in both land and ocean, as well as more frequent heat waves in most regions. With regard the physical changes, the melting of poles that leads to glacial regression, snow melting, flooding in rivers and lakes, coastal erosion and sea-level rise and some extreme natural phenomenon is the major impact. Some impacts may be long-lasting or irreversible, such as the loss of some ecosystems and biodiversity. The extreme drought that results in the shortage of water and unexpected wildfire are other consequences of global warming. With regard the human systems, climate change affects food production, its systems and distribution. The report affirms a reduction in the yields of maize, rice, wheat and other cereal crops especially in the regions of sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America. This kind of reduction enlarges poverty that gradually leads to starvation, diseases and death. The climate change also affects the immunity system of the human body that may further create many sorts of diseases and death. Consequently, there is a possibility of desertification which may force the local inhabitants to leave the place and to move to other localities increasing the number of climate refugees.
Among the many, the most noticeable effect would be the rise of sea level. As per the studies, if the current ratio continues the global warming will be 2° Celsius by 2100 that may cause a rise of sea-level around 2 meters which may affect 187 million people around the globe. However, if we can reduce the global warming at the ratio of 1.5° Celsiusby 2100, global sea- level rise is projected to be around 0.1 metre, where the risks can be reduced up to 10 million fewer people. Sea level will continue to rise beyond 2100, and the magnitude and rate of this rise depend on future emission pathways. In India, we have quite many experiences of the rising of sea-level. During the last July, the coastal regions of Kerala had to face serious challenges as waves battered over there. The giant waves washed away few houses and damaged many of them at Chellanam, one of the coastal villages located between Ernakulam and Alappuzha district, Kerala. Due to the heavy wind, high waves, cyclone and sea erosion, over fifty thousand people, most of them are fishermen are under threat. Many temporal measures to protect the shores during heavy rain, like keeping sandbags or geo bags and tubes or even the construction of sea wall seems to be ineffective due to heavy storms, high tides and severe sea erosion. The local people at this area says that the name ‘Chellanam’ is originated from the term ‘Chellavanam’(inaccessible forest), which was a small forest some eighty years back. During those days, the seashore was almost 4 KMs away from the present border. We have many similar experiences from the different seashores of India recently.
Another important impact of climate change is the drought followed by wildfires, that destroy the lives of millions of animals, plants and small insects. It also affects the production of crops, ecosystem and humans especially the indigenous communities and tribal groups who depend on the forest for their livelyhood. It will also badly affect the populations living at the vicinities of the forest regions. Reaching 2° Celsius of global warming would lead to substantial warming of extremely hot days in all land regions, with drastic and severe consequences. Limiting global warming to 1.5° Celsius could reduce the number of people opened to the risks of climate change and related problems. Apart from human beings, among the 105,000 species studied, 96% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates are projected to lose over half of their climatically determining geographic range for global warming of 1.5° Celsius, compared with 18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates for global warming of 2° Celsius.

Limiting Global Temperature

Though the IPCC report speaks about the possibility of global warming of 2° Celsius, it is hopeful to reduce the warming to 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels.However, there is no definitive way to make this limitation. The report gives two pathways to limit climate change. The first involves global temperature stabilizing at or below before 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The second pathway sees warming exceed 1.5° Celsius around mid-century, remain above 1.5° Celsius for a maximum duration of a few decades, and return to below 1.5° Celsius before 2100. Limiting warming to 1.5° Celsius requires a marked shift in investment patterns.
The report also points out some major hurdles in the process of mitigation. When the governments and people are too much concentrated on economic growth, technology and developments, the public is not ready to change their lifestyles and living systems. Lack of global cooperation and political will, weak or fragmented policies, the inefficiency of governance of the required energy and land transformation and increases in resource-intensive consumption are key impediments to achieving 1.5° Celsius pathways. Limiting warming to 1.5° C depends on the emission of greenhouse gas in the coming decades. Though the governments and policymakers have a major role to play, civil society, the private sector, indigenous peoples and local communities and above all individual persons have their role to play in the process of limiting the global warming to 1.5° Celsius. The report suggests the use of new technologies, clean energy sources, reduced deforestation, improved sustainable agricultural methods, and changes in individual and collective behaviour as some steps of mitigation. Unless each person is not aware of the dangerous situation of present climate change and is proactive to the mitigation process the proposed limiting of global warming would become a mere mirage.