“If We Combine Forces Now, We Can Avert Climate Catastrophe”

QUESTION:

What are the findings of IPCC report 2021 on climate change and global warming? What are its predictions to India?

-Sr. Maria Thomas

ANSWER: Saji Mathew Kanayankal CST

Introduction
The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) has published the first part of the sixth assessment report on 9 August 2021 with the title, ‘IPCC Working Group I Report on the Physical Science Basis of the Sixth Assessment,’ which is a synthesis result of eight years painstaking work of more than a thousand of scientists and peer-review studies from all over the world. It will be followed by WGII report, in February 2022 that covers the impact of the climate change and WGIII report in March 2022 with the outline of options for mitigation. It is to be noted that the WGI report is published just a few months prior to the 2021 UN climate change conference (COP26), to be scheduled on 1-12 November 2021 in Glasgow. More than 190 world leaders along with thousands of negotiators and government representatives and citizens will participate in this conference. This conference should be seen as an occasion for different governments, businesses, local authorities and civil society to discuss and take serious decisions with some concrete measures to mitigate the climate extremes. As publishing the report, António Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned: “[This report] is a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.”
The report and its findings are not mere scientific information, rather, they are some living experience for us. Last August has reported many unparallel natural calamities and havocs from the different parts of the world. The massive and heavy rain at Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia, the earthquake and hurricane in Greece, the disastrous wild fire that have burned more than 4.59 millions of acres of land in US, the flash floods that swept away the life of more than a thousand of people and many hectors of land in Germany, Belgium and Luxemburg, the Canadian heatwave, and the deluge that hit the Black Sea region are some of the very recent events among many apocalyptic events due to climate change.

The key findings of the report

The whole report of IPCC is very vast and elaborative, and certain important findings in the report give us an awareness about the seriousness of the crisis. First, the report warns the international community about the global warming. The earth may reach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming – the safe limit for temperature rise that was outlined in Paris agreement (2015) – within just the next two decades. Though the IPCC warned about the alarming condition of global warming in its previous report (IPCC’s Special Report Global Warming of 1.5°C, 2018), we have consistently failed to enact clear concrete actions to reduce the GHG emissions and the precent report undoubtedly states that the planet has already crossed a 1.1°C warming which can only be controlled with some very serious mitigation process.
Second, Climate change is a reality and it is caused by human influences. It was already clear that human activity is changing the earth’s climate in ways “unprecedented” in thousands or hundreds of thousands of years. The report states; “it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.” As Valerie Masson-Delmotte, the co-chair of IPCC’s WGI, after the publication of the report says; “we have the clearest picture of how the Earth’s climate functions, and how human activities affect it. We know, better than ever, how the climate has changed in the past, how it is changing now, and how it will change in the future.”
Third, most of the changes in climate are accelerating in recent years. The frequency, scale and intensity of climate disasters have increased recently and they have scorched and flooded many parts of the world in recent months. The warmest year in the recorded history was 2016 and four warmest years (2016, 2020, 2019 and 2015) also were in the last decade. The rate of sea level rise in 2006 -18 has almost tripled in comparison with 1901-1971. We also experience faster increase in the amounts of extreme weather events like rainfall, flooding, hurricane, wildfire, mudslides etc., in recent decades. Until we take serious and concrete steps to reduce carbon emission, the Earth could exceed 1.5°C of global warming as early 2030s.
Fourth, certain changes occurred in the earth are irreversible. Some of the extreme events like global warming, the melting of polar ice, and rise of seal level etc., are irreversible. Many changes to our planet are unprecedented and irreversible and it affects every inhabited region across the globe, and some of the impacts are accelerating.
Fifth, Green House Gas emission, especially the emission of CO2 is the leading cause of climate change. According to the IPCC, about 85% of CO₂ emissions come from burning fossil fuels. If we can reduce the CO2 alone, there can be some decisive impact in our fight agnist climate change, but the time is running short.
Sixth, every region in the globe will be affected by the climate change and all will be part of it. Definitely, it may affect the poor first, but none in the world will not be away from its effects. For example, the rise of seal-level first affects the people living in the coastal areas, and the shortage in water or the effect of the extreme rain or draught may affect the farmers and the poor first. But no one in the world can be free form it in long term.
Along with it some of the recent studies and reports give us further signs on the acceleration of climate change and ecological crisis. The article published in ‘Nature Communications’ on 9 September 2021 with the title, ‘Mass Extinction Events Can Turn Freshwater Into Toxic Soup, And It’s Already Happening’ says that a the largest mass extinction event in Earth’s history was Permian extinction event which took around 252 million years ago was a result of a ‘toxic soup to sprout in the Sydney Basin.’ The study claims that we do see a lot of parallels of the previous mass extinction today and “more and more toxic algae blooms in lakes and in shallow marine environments that is related to increases in temperature and changes in plant communities which are leading to increases in nutrient contributions to freshwater environments.” It was also reported that there was an unexpected rainfall in Greenland Summit on 14 and 15 August 2021, the first event in history since scientists have been making observations there. This is a clear sign of the intensity of the global warming in the area.

Effect in India

The Sixth Assessment Report recognises compound extremes, multiple climate change drivers working together to maximise disaster impacts and it predicts a turnaround in monsoon intensity in India and around linking it with rising temperature. Growing air pollution has reduced the intensity as well as frequency of monsoon rains all over the south Asia. It also brings out several observational issues and acknowledges the role of compounding extremes in maximising disaster impacts in the different parts of India. The increasing tendency of frequency of heavy rainfall occurrences especially in the central India, a significant decline in summer monsoon all over India since the middle of 20th century, later monsoon onset, unprecedented winter, and early spring precipitation over the north-western Himalaya for the period 1951-2007 are some of the incidents mentioned in the report. It also points out the possibility of an increase in South and Southeast Asian Monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century. A significant decline in rainfall over the second half of this century is one of the important findings of the report. However, the region has already witnessed an artificial jump in extreme rainfall since 1975 and it may continue for coming years too.
Apart from heavy rainfalls, India and neighbouring countries will also experience deficit in monsoon. The report highlighted that throughout Asia, “intensity and frequency of hot extremes, such as warm days, warm nights, and heat waves; and decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes, such as cold days and cold nights” is on the card. India and Pakistan are expected to suffer more.
As per the findings, increased GHG concentrations are a strong contributor to changes in the monsoon, with repercussions for the meridional temperature contrast driving the monsoon circulation. The industrial emissions of sulphate aerosol predominantly in the Northern Hemisphere could change inter-hemispheric energy transports and weaken the monsoon. The level of air pollution, particularly toxic particulate has been found to be the highest in Indian sub-continent. “Air pollution has increased over the Indian subcontinent, and so have aerosol levels; it acts as a barrier and reduces the difference of temperature between sea surface and land. This provides a cooling effect and reduces monsoon intensity,” said Subimal Ghosh of Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Mumbai. It also reports the rising of sea level in different parts of the subcontinent. Mumbai and Chennai have had 0.58 and 0.57 meters of sea level rise, the highest among the meters. This was followed by Kolkata with 0.15 meter rise.
The green revolution in India led to the change in land-use with a massive expansion of agriculture at the expense of forest and shrublands. The irrigation was increased as an aftermath. However, it is in the state of drying out now. India, the third largest emitter in the world, has been holding out, arguing that it was already doing much more than it was required to do, performing better, than other countries, and that any further burden would jeopardise its continuing efforts to pull its millions out of poverty. Immediate emission cuts and a steady pathway to net-zero is expected to bring better benefits than a business-as-usual scenario and a sudden drop in emissions towards the end to meet the target.
The practical and ethical challenges
After publishing the IPCC report, Boris Johnson, prime minister of the UK, said: “Today’s report makes for sobering reading, and it is clear that the next decade is going to be pivotal to securing the future of our planet. … I hope today’s report will be a wake-up call for the world to take action now, before we meet in Glasgow in November for the critical Cop26 summit.” But what concrete steps have been taken by the different governments is a serious question at present. Ours is a decisive and important moment in human history, a time when environmental consciousness is at an all-time high and the science has given us enough warning on the gravity of the problem. If we do not act promptly and prudently, the worse effects of the climate change on lives, livelihoods and natural habitats will be increasing. As Stephen Cornelius, chief adviser on climate change at WWF (World Wild Fund for Nature), warned, “this is a stark assessment of the frightening future that awaits us if we fail to act. With the world on the brink of irreversible harm, every fraction of a degree of warming matters to limit the dangers.” It is a sad reality that many governments continue to brush environmental concerns under the carpet. In her recent speech in the ‘Youth 4climate summit,’ Greta Thunberg excoriated the world leaders saying that their “words sound great but so far have not led the action.” Unless the leaders of the world make certain clear and concrete decisions, things will get much worse.
Primarily it is the duty of the concerned governments to take certain concrete steps to reduce the emission of carbons and thus to control the global warming. By implementing the different laws strongly, the governments can gear the market towards low-carbon activities. All nations especially the major emitters, need to join the net-zero emissions coalition and reinforce their commitments with credible, concrete and enhanced policies. We hope the Glasgow summit would come out with some concrete steps in this direction.
Not only the governments, the civil society and NGOs have their role to bring awareness to the people and act promptly realising the urgency of our time. What we need primarily is a new outlook on environment and the world around us. It invites to make certain changes in our concepts, attitudes and lifestyles. The present mode of development is to be viewed differently and we should be dare enough to take some concrete measures to reduce emissions. The new culture of work at home can be promoted. Some NGOs are introduced a mission, ‘20-minute neighbourhood’ which provide all of people needs within a 20-minte walk with links to sustainable transport and good cycling. “If we combine forces now, we can avert climate catastrophe. But, as today’s report makes clear, there is no time for delay and no room for excuses. I count on government leaders and all stakeholders to ensure COP26 is a success.” (António Guterres, UN Secretary General).