Abp. Thomas Menamparampil sdb

The Future Remains Unpredictable
History is full of surprises. When European nations were taking turn to plunder China in the 19th century, they could not foresee that within three generations China’s wealth and military strength would far outstrip all that their Continent could put together. Books written even a decade ago did not predict Xi’s China.
Similarly, despite the fact that Nehru’s was nearly the only voice speaking in favour of a respected position for China in world affairs in the 1950s when Mao’s Communist China was considered a ‘rogue state’ in the West, it came as a shock to him when Mao’s army dealt a deadly blow on India’s Eastern front in 1962. In fact, it shortened Nehru’s life. China takes everyone by surprise.
Again, when Narendra Modi was welcomed at Wuhan and Xi Jinping at Mahabalipuram with unprecedented enthusiasm, people on neither side could imagine that their armies would collide on the Ladakh front within a short time. While the display of Modi-Xi intimacy seemed unrealistically exuberant, the construction of a 435 km Lhasa-Nyngchi railway was steadily going on to enable the Chinese army to reach Arunachal borders at short notice. The completion of the line was an immense achievement, with 47 tunnels and 121 bridges, crossing Yarlung Zambo (early Brahmaputra) 16 times. Modiji was little conscious of what was happening at the borders when charmed by Xi’s warmth he was enthusiastically proposing 70 areas of collaboration between the two countries.
The Indian army was concentrating on the Eastern side of Tibet, and the attack came on the West. We lost twenty valiant men at the Ladakh frontier. Ever since, talks have been going on at the officers’ level about disengagement at Hot Springs and Depsang Plains, with little progress. The latest report we have is that the Chinese army is making more sophisticated preparations all along Indian borders. The Indian army will have to remain alert during another cold winter. How far QUAD can help to ease the anxiety remains uncertain. China has called it mere “sea foam”.
The other day, when Imran Khan was asked how he was helping the Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, he frankly admitted that such things were discussed only behind closed doors between the leaders of Pakistan and China. “That is their nature and culture,” he explained. Here a correction may be required. Xi’s style of functioning may not necessarily be the Chinese style, but his own interpretation of it.

China under Mao and Deng
China itself has been changing. Mao Zedong united China after a lengthy civil war proclaiming the People’s Republic of China in 1949. After generations of chaos, it was no mean achievement. “China has stood up”, he proudly claimed. He believed that “political power flows from the barrel of the gun”. His economic plans, however, went awry, and the Cultural Revolution he launched took away the lives of millions.
Deng Xiaoping who succeeded him in 1978 was more pragmatic. He learned from the experience of Taiwan and Singapore and liberalized the economy. Adopting a policy of ‘Graduality’, he encouraged private initiative. Let a few people get rich first, he said. “It is glorious to be rich,” he would tell the youth to stimulate ambition. As for China’s international relationships, Deng opted for a low profile approach. “Hide your strength and bide your time,” was his policy. Meantime he opened relationship with US, initiated trade with Taiwan, negotiated back Hong Kong and Macao. China set a world record of economic growth. Deng also gave greater freedom to religion, education, international intellectual exchanges, and media. However, he did not renounce his loyalty to Communism nor effective control of the administrative machinery. He believed in collective leadership, separation of state and party, and fixed terms to national officers.

China under XI
Everything changed in 2012 with Xi Jinping gaining ascendency. It took him a while to concentrate power in his hands (Party, Army, Government), eliminating opponents in the name of corruption. Once he established himself as the “Paramount Leader” for life, he announced a programme of “Rejuvenation” of China as his core programme for the nation. He sought to harmonize Communist ideology with Confucian traditions. Modifying Deng’s liberal norms, Xi promoted “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”. Full of energy and creativity, he launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which would help develop infrastructure in the Third World and East Europe.
Since Deng’s years, China’s production capacity had risen and her share of the trade with the ASEAN, RECP and the entire West had skyrocketed. She holds a leading position in the supply chain for most goods. India, for example, has become nearly dependent on China for pharmaceuticals, electrical and other goods, Indo-China trade reaching $100 billion. Xi-nomics believes in growth, digitization (cloud computing, Big Data) and innovation. While people like Deng Pufang, Deng Xiaoping’s son, call for realism and modesty in international relationships, Xi insists on dominance, stability and ‘solid balance of power’…a world where China stands tall. He has brought Hong Kong under Beijing’s control, claims ownership over South China Sea islands and Taiwan. The ‘Thoughts of Xi’ are prescribed for study from primary school to University. Outside views are controlled. The ‘great fire wall’ keeps China free of Google, YouTube, WhatsApp, Twitter, Instagram.

Evaluation of XI’s China
Despite such control, tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu command an overseas empire of Artificial Intelligence and social media. They own billions. Xi has been greatly perturbed about the growing economic inequality within the socialistic order he wants to construct. “Let us share our wealth”, he urges. The Anti-monopoly Act of 2020 was with this objective in view. Jack Ma has been called to books, the ‘Shanghai and Shanxi gang’ marginalized, critical intellectuals like Xu Zhangrun of Tsinghua University dismissed. Anti-trust officials are after media outlets like ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, accusing them of misusing customers’ data, or presenting ‘improper’ images. Alibaba was given a fine of $2.8 billion in April. Zhang Yiming’s App was shut down for ‘vulgar” content, until he promised to uphold “socialist core values”. It would seem that gradually only Communist media will be tolerated.
While Trump seemed tough on China, every punitive action he took in regulating trade was responded with an equally strong measure by China. Biden’s vocabulary and postures may seem milder, but his basic stand is the same. Mitt Romney, the Republican Senator, alleges that China wants to be the sole superpower by 2050, economically, militarily and geopolitically. The real goal is world domination. But he agrees that China can be persuaded to act more responsibly, avoiding ‘technology theft’, predatory business practices, cyber spying; subsidisation, counterfeiting, and predatory pricing. After all, they face a pushback on every front whether it be in Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan or Japanese islands. The Belt and Road Initiative too seems to be landing in a mess with colossal debt burden on poor countries ($385 billion), corruption scandals, environmental disasters, and consequent public anger. In Pakistan, a number of Chinese workers on infrastructure projects were killed. Xi is cautious about stepping into Afghanistan for lucrative mining projects.
But the greatest anxiety ahead will be the consequence of the “one-child” policy (1979) that is going to affect China’s 1.41 billion population in the long term. The policy has been revised of late, with various enticements for a bigger family, but with little success. China’s population is expected to peak in 2027, before it begins to fall rapidly. Psychologists say that single children that grew up as “little emperors” in families are not likely to have the sturdiness required of resolute fighting forces at the borders or productive teams in factories in tomorrow’s China. Artificial Intelligence will not easily make up for shrinking numbers. Meantime, mental resistance to ‘forced’ labour is growing, despite Xi’s inspiring image to ambitious youth.

Restrictions on Religious Activities Tightening
Presently, sources in Hong Kong speak of 10 million Catholics in China, 147 dioceses, 99 bishops, about 400 priests, 4,600 sisters in 87 congregations, 350 seminarians in 6 seminaries. The Xi government insists on the Sinicization of religion (to make it more Chinese). It demands the “education” of the clergy in Chinese culture and socialism, which for practical purposes has meant being compelled to support government policies. Bishops and priests are asked to attend such programmes. They have no problem in adopting a “simple” way of life that Xi suggests; but it is not easy to praise government initiatives in homilies, as they are told to do. Meanwhile, any form of pastoral ministry to young people below 18 is forbidden.
Harassments are constantly on the increase. Bishop Augustine Cui Tai, for instance, was taken away by the police and released after some time. This they had done to him several times. Similar arrests are common, with no explanations. According to Christian Post, Christians in five provinces were asked to replace crosses with posters of Xi Jinping or lose welfare benefits. UCA News reported how the Electronic Sciences University felt free to reedit the Bible locally to say that the adulteress woman was stoned to death (Jn 8:3-11)! Christian protests went in vain. The owner of an online bookshop was sentenced to seven years’ imprisonment for selling foreign religious books.
As the government has been insisting on priests being registered with the government, Bishops are encouraging them to do so. It is doubtful whether the unregistered Church can survive. The ‘House Churches’ of the Protestants, that used to flourish at one time, face the same difficulties. Twelve seminarians and three priests working in the unrecognised seminary at Baoding (Hebei) were arrested. At Luojiang the clergy were forced to move out of the church premises in the name of Coronavirus; the home for the elderly run by nuns closed. More and more unregistered worship houses are being closed down, e.g. in Mindong Diocese. Reason given was “fire security protection”. Pew Research Centre puts China on top of the list of 198 governments persecuting religions. Around Wuhan, all Church activities were suspended during the pandemic. The Pope Francis had sent 700,000 masks to China those days.

Looking to the Future with Hope
In the midst of all these worries, the renewal of the Sino-Vatican Provisional Agreement between China and the Vatican on October 22nd for another two years met with both appreciation and criticism. The agreement is mainly concerned with the appointment of bishops and reflects Vatican’s concern for China’s pastoral needs. Perceptive people understand that choices were limited. History has proved that dialogue is more fruitful in relationship with China than confrontation. Fr. Gianni Criveller says, what we need to do is to trust in the “moral strength and faith of the Catholics of China” in these difficult days.
Even amidst difficulties, the Christian community looks forward with hope. The Church always provides a ‘Communion’, continuously helping each other. Young people seek to revive their faith in summer camps. They are greatly inspired by the experience of Taize prayer sessions. There are online courses on the history of the Church, Bible, catechism, liturgy, moral theology, spirituality, vocation stories. Virtual prayer gatherings are frequent.
The Christian community grew best during periods of trouble. Decades of earlier persecution had planted into the Christian movement additional energy. A new wave of harassments will revive that experience. Xi will need to remember the Chinese proverb that says, it is the lone and tall tree that suffers most in a storm. A one-man leadership has never led a society to abiding achievements. If he exaggerates any measure in the direction of unfairness, the Chinese belief is that the “Mandate of Heaven” will be withdrawn. The same message is valid for every leader that heads an Erring Democracy today, including our own. People in the field are the best judges. Longing for Truth appears where it seems most absent.
As for India and China, peace comes on the day they say to each other, “We need you”.