• Prof. Dr Nishant A. Irudayadason
  Faculty of Philosophy
  Pontifical Athenaeum Jnana Deepa
  Pune 411014

The reasons behind Donald Trump’s substantial victory in the recent American elections are complex and open to interpretation. However, the explanations circulated in the media and offered by polling institutions and “research laboratories” often present a skewed perspective. This “interpretative” approach, repeated without access to comprehensive electoral data, has created a somewhat standardised narrative. Factors frequently cited include Harris’s perceived lack of connection with the working class, the Democrats’ focus on Trump rather than economic issues, an overly late campaign push by Biden, and Trump’s rising popularity among ethnic minorities, particularly Latino men. The urban-rural divide also featured heavily as an explanatory factor.

While these variables offer some justification, they fall short of distinguishing between trends inherited from the 2020 elections and new electoral behaviours among Americans. Relying on polling data as snapshots of public opinion risks providing an overly simplified picture for readers seeking a nuanced understanding. Without comprehensive data—particularly absolute numbers on voting patterns broken down by gender, age, professional category, religion, and ethnicity—it’s challenging to avoid misleading comparisons, which percentages alone can distort by levelling social phenomena into a uniform measure.

Another troubling approach compounds this tendency towards oversimplification: attributing complex behaviours to “magical” explanations, often implying sweeping changes in mentality. The case of “Latino men” is emblematic. Analysis shows that Latino support for Trump has increased significantly, and although surprising, this shift reflects an ongoing trend rather than an abrupt change. Religious affiliation might offer more insight, given that Christian Latinos may be aligning with Trump’s platform partly due to shared cultural values, a trend also visible among Protestant and Catholic voters, who leaned heavily towards Trump. By contrast, Jewish voters and those without religious affiliation largely supported Harris. This contrast hints at a growing alignment of Christian-identifying Latinos with the prevailing views of the dominant white, Christian demographic. Other minority groups, including Afro-Americans, have maintained strong Democratic support, likely due to longstanding concerns over racial issues. For Asian and Arab voters, a notable shift towards Trump might reflect disillusionment with Democratic policies, a reaction some interpret as a form of protest.

Economic issues were also highly divisive. Harris’s supporters generally rated the national economy positively, while Trump’s base felt the opposite. This economic divide echoes 2020 trends, suggesting it may be more a fear of potential economic decline than actual hardship that has driven Trump’s popularity. Trump’s base views him as a strong leader capable of effecting change, with many holding deeply anti-immigrant views, marking a social climate that some describe as proto-fascist, conservative, and traditionalist. These voting dynamics reveal deeper trends, particularly in foreign policy. Trump supporters, for instance, overwhelmingly favour increased US support for Israel, a stance that creates stark division on international issues. Age also proved significant: younger voters (aged 18-29) were notably less inclined to support the Democrats than in 2020. Some suggest this defection is linked to Democratic positions on Palestine and restrictions on pro-Palestinian demonstrations on campuses.

Three key insights emerge from these elections: (1) Trump’s victory is more due to a decrease in Democratic votes than a surge in Republican support. (2) This decline is partly due to young voters abandoning the Democrats, influenced by campus restrictions, foreign policy, and economic concerns. (3) Minority support for Trumpism increasingly aligns with religious affiliation, hinting at a cultural and ideological divide: Christian groups lean towards Trump, while Jewish, Muslim, and non-religious groups are more Democratic. Although Democrats have broadly supported Israel, many Jewish Americans remain aligned with ethnic minorities, distancing themselves from white supremacy, a sentiment particularly prevalent among less-educated white voters. This suggests that foreign policy, particularly regarding Israel, may play a far larger role in these trends than previously assumed. It seems to account for younger voters’ disengagement, disillusionment among non-Christian minorities, and an overall decline in pro-Democratic votes.