- Vincent Kundukulam
One of the cartoons that became viral in the social media after the Bihar election, held in the month of November 2025, was as follows: ‘The Prime Minister asks the Election Commissioner: why did you give me a massive victory? I told you to grab only the needful. The foreign media has begun to make fun of me’. Though a trolling, it points to the mysterious side of the Bihar legislative elections. The win of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with 202 seats out of 243 is depicted as a ‘landslide victory’, because no political party in India has so far seized such a 90% strike rate in the elections. Several reasons are put forward for this amazing result.
The winning side explains its success with 46.6% of votes as a sign of public approval of the performance of the NDA government under the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. According to NDA, there has happened notable improvement across the key public services during his tenure: the availability of electricity and the condition of roads improved, the access to drinking water bettered and the functioning of the government hospitals got upgraded. The distribution of cycles and uniforms to school children made great impact on families. Besides, it argues, people were afraid that If the RJD comes in power, the state will again return to the jungle raj – the poor law and order situation between 1990 and 2005, while Lalu Prasad and Babri Devi governed the State.
The winning side explains its success with 46.6% of votes as a sign of public approval of the performance of the NDA government under the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, citing improvements in infrastructure, public services, and law and order.
Certain political observers confirm this claim pointing out that a considerable number of voters might have believed that it was necessary for the party in power at the Centre to also be in power in the state for the progress of the state. Along with the developmental card, the success of NDA comes also out its capacity to work as a team at the grass-root level, observes political analysts. It could make maximum benefit of the influence its coalition parties had among different sections of people. While the BJP attracted a large number of upper caste votes, the JDU of Nitish Kumar assured votes of Kurmi caste and the Lok Samta Party of Upendra Kushwaha secured the Koeri votes. Both the Hindustaan Awaam Morcha and the Lok Jan Shakti Party attracted a large fraction of Dalit votes. The NDA allies could give the impression that they are united. Their key leaders made campaign not only for their own candidates but also for those of their partners. In contrast, the MGB showed little cohesion and mutual support. It had seat-sharing issues and in several places, it allowed friendly fights. The studies show that the vote share of NDA increased about 9% as its allies together pulled the electoral engine.
Having said this, we cannot ignore the reasons given by the opposition camp for the success of NDA. It is true, NDA has gained much through the SIR game and the distribution of money to the women voters. There are many pointers that legitimate such a hypothesis. Regarding the SIR factor, the Mahagatbandan (MGB, Alliance headed by the Congress and RJD) states that around 128 seats out of 202 won by the NDA came purely from this voter deletion. The EC examined the voter eligibility of residents hastily and without proper transparency. Nobody knew by what norm it cancelled the eligibility of voters, especially the Muslim immigrants. As the current SIR is bereft of proper rules and scrutiny of social audit, the public had no way to indicate the flaws in the process. And since the Supreme Court refused to address the question, whether the EC has power to conduct an SIR just before the election, the opposition became helpless.
-
Along with the developmental card, the success of NDA comes also out of its capacity to work as a team at the grass-root level and its ability to consolidate a broad coalition of caste-based votes, whereas the Mahagatbandhan (MGB) showed little cohesion.
-
The opposition camp attributes the landslide victory to controversial factors such as the Strategic Ineligible Resident (SIR) voter deletion process and the direct transfer of money to female voters just before the election.
With regard to the second factor – buying the women votes by sending ten thousand rupees to their accounts – there are ample evidences. First of all, the ratio of women voted in the last election was exceptionally high compared to the previous elections. Secondly, there was a huge difference between males and females in terms of voter turnout. The women voted outnumbered men about nine percent. Besides, the data of Polls Map survey shows that while 46% male voters preferred NDA, almost 48% female voters opted NDA. All these approve that the imminent transfer of money to the female accounts has really pushed the latter to vote for NDA. This is reasonable in a state where 42% of voters took the decision to vote only two days before the voting date.
On the other side, what adversely affected the Mahagatbandhan must be the lack of coordination among its allies and lack of proper communication with the people. However, it would be premature to conclude that the RJD and Congress camp can never come back to power in Bihar. Because, although RJD could not make gain in terms of seats, it has emerged as the single largest party in terms of the votes polled. It could consolidate its vote bank emerging out of Yadavas and Muslims, but failed to attract the voters from other communities as in the past.
- kundu1962@gmail.com
