- Prof Dr Nishant A. Irudayadason
Pontifical Athenaeum Jnana Deepa
Pune 411014
As missiles illuminate the nights over Tehran and Israeli cities fire back at Iranian drones, the Middle East has been thrust into a war that, after years of shadow boxing, feels both sudden and inescapable. What started on 28 February with a wave of almost 900 American and Israeli airstrikes, killing Iran’s supreme leader and destroying its missile sites, has since dragged on for more than two weeks, with Tehran striking back at Gulf neighbours and warning it might strangle the Strait of Hormuz. US forces claim that they have sunk Iranian ships and cleared mines. President Trump talks of a quick victory while Iranian leaders demand reparations and guarantees before any ceasefire. For those of us in India following the news as it unfolds, it is not some distant drama onscreen; it is a live threat to the fuel that runs our buses, factories and kitchens, showing how swiftly far-away blasts can shake our everyday lives and individual aspirations.
The conflict’s exposure of the raw nerves of international power struggles is the deeper tragedy. Israel, backed by Washington, set out to smash Iran’s nuclear dreams and missile factories once and for all, and early reports suggest they have degraded Tehran’s capabilities dramatically. However, Iran’s retaliation has spread, attacking tankers and even luring unwilling Gulf nations that never requested to be used as battlefields. The potential blockade of the narrow waterway that still carries one-fifth of the world’s oil is the real nightmare for the rest of the world, not the bombs themselves. Insurance and shipping costs have skyrocketed, and the first effects are already being felt in international markets. We have been here before with smaller crises, but never with a superpower-backed assault that risks turning the Persian Gulf into a no-go zone for months.
The suffering is reaching home here in India more quickly than many anticipated. More than 80% of our crude oil is imported, and about half of it used to come through the now-threatened Gulf routes. Since late February, Brent prices have increased dramatically, and every 10 percentage-point increase is predicted to reduce GDP growth and drive up inflation at a time when households were recovering from previous shocks. Fertiliser shipments from Iran are delayed, cooking gas cylinders are going missing from stores in some cities, and the rupee is under new pressure as our import bill soars. We are treading carefully on the diplomatic front; while our defence and technological ties with Israel are stronger than ever, the Chabahar port and our long-standing energy connections with Tehran are also important. With a quiet American waiver, the government has prudently turned to Russian crude, but this is only a band-aid solution; a protracted disruption could increase our current-account deficit and force tougher decisions on subsidies and spending that regular families will have to pay for.
The burden is distributed unevenly, but the rest of Asia is by no means exempt. China appears to be better off for the time being, thanks to its massive stockpiles and discounted purchases of Iranian oil. It has even increased the number of its citizens being evacuated from the Gulf. However, Southeast Asian capitals from Bangkok to Manila are quietly concerned about the safety of hundreds of thousands of their workers caught in the crossfire as well as the impact on everything from food prices to tourism. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are discreetly releasing emergency reserves while their stock markets tremble. Even more severe energy constraints could lead to internal unrest in Pakistan and its smaller neighbours. The unsettling reality that our rapidly expanding economies still rely on Middle Eastern oil is what binds us all together; when Hormuz coughs, the entire continent gets sick, and this time the fever seems likely to last.
Ultimately, this conflict forces India and other Asian countries to confront harsh realities about their reliance on energy and their strategic independence. We may witness persistent inflation, slower growth, and a rush for alternatives that could ultimately hasten our transition to renewable energy and diverse suppliers if the conflict lasts longer than a few more weeks. Before the harm becomes irreversible, India should be wise to use its independent voice to encourage de-escalation on all fronts, possibly through diplomacy at the UN or within BRICS. For too long, the problem of Middle East stability was someone else’s; the flames licking at our oil imports today show how interconnected our fates really are. As Indians, we can only hope that reason returns before the economic scars run too deep, because when great powers clash in distant deserts, it is ordinary humans across the globe who end up paying the heaviest price at the petrol pump and the dinner table.
