- Ponmala
The Russia-Ukraine war has just entered the fourth year. Both Russia, which set out to conquer Ukraine in a 3-day blitzkrieg, and Ukraine, which has resisted valiantly for three years, are exhausted and half-dead. A total of 1.5 million soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded. Russia has laid waste to the 20% of Ukraine that it has captured. But, in the process, the prestige that Russia had as the second largest army in the world has also been laid waste. Putin’s misadventure has taken Russia, which was soaring high on petrodollar, at least two decades backward. Though beaten and battered, Ukraine stands tall as the only European nation that has the will to fight and the guts to challenge a Goliath.
The return of Trump into the White House has turned the world topsy-turvy for Ukraine. Its right hand, America, is threatening to either drop it or squeeze the juice out of it; and its left hand, Europe, is trembling with fear. America has, under Trump, defected to Russia as did Mir Jafar, commander-in-chief of Siraj-ud-Daula of Bengal, to the British during the Battle of Plassey. That betrayal by Mir Jafar paved the way for the British colonisation of India and Burma. The consequences of America’s defection to Russia are anybody’s guess, but there is one thing we can be sure of – they will bring about a new world order.
Trump is like a toddler king, whose regent, Elon Musk, is dancing to the tune of his tantrums while his cabinet is bending backwards to mollify him by satisfying his every wish. Self-consumed Trump’s world-view is so replete with irreconcilables that even the most battle-hardened diplomat will feel dizzy thinking of them. The toys he is bawling for are Canada, Greenland, Panama, Gaza and Ukraine. Or he could be thought of as an unfaithful husband who has found a new lover in Putin’s resource rich Russia and is forcing Europe to divorce him by driving her mad. If so, it remains to be seen whether Putin will sever ties with Trump’s archenemies China and Iran to take the plunge. In all probability, wily Putin will keep Trump running after him until the latter offers Ukraine on a platter as a sacrificial lamb.
NATO’s Article 5 enjoins all its 32 countries to come to the defence of any member who is attacked. But Trump is so enamoured of Putin that he cannot be expected to move a finger if Russia attacks any of NATO’s members. Nor can European members of NATO be expected to respond if and when Trump’s America invokes Article 5. If Trump continues to dismantle the present world order at the mad pace he has been doing for the past one month, NATO will cease to exist by the end of his second term. Ukraine will be the worst for it. Abandoned by America, it will have to depend solely on Europe. But all that Ukraine can expect from Europe is military hardware and cash. When it comes to sending forces to fight, Europe is mostly a coalition of the unwilling.
Too many are the imponderables that are making world leaders lose their sleep. What if Trump acts on his threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, using Israel as his tool? How will Iran’s allies Russia and China react to it? Will not the European arm of NATO repay Trump by taking a hands-off stand in the event of it triggering a wider conflict? Are we staring at World War III initiated by the twenty-first-century reincarnation of Hitler? Will we have a new Cold War between two blocks of extremists, the far right autocracies headed by America and the far left autocracies headed by China? Will a new group of non-aligned nations of liberal democracies emerge?
Thanks to Trumponomics, the world economic order too is breaking down. The very America that promoted globalisation when it suited it is now championing protectionism as emerging economies pose a threat to its economic hegemony. The tariff war that Trump has declared on friend and foe alike is forcing nations to scramble for economic realignment. Reacting to the challenge thrown by Trump, most of the world, including Europe, Canada, Mexico, South America and Africa are gravitating towards China, which is playing its cards well to fill the vacancy created by America’s greed. As a result, China is replacing America as the kingpin of the new economic world order that is fast emerging.
Where does India stand in the midst of all this? To placate Trump, will India be willing to dump BRICS, which is assiduously seeking ways to decouple the world economy from the dollar? Will India have the guts to wave BRICS against Trump, who does not let a day go by without chastising it for high tariffs? Trump has thrown enough hints that it would be foolish for India to rely on him. Why allow him to use India as a tool against China when you cannot rule out the possibility of him jilting and falling head over heels for China if and when he develops an infatuation for it for any reason? If age-old rivals America and Russia can patch up and become friends, why not India and China? In fact, the safest bet for India would be to develop a friendly and healthy relationship with China.
In the final analysis, we are thrown into the thick of a once-in-an-epoch battle between ethical values and predatory materialism – a battle between good and evil. Sambhavami Yuge Yuge – I will keep coming epoch after epoch.
